The latest Office for National Statistics figures show retail sales volumes jumped 1.8 per cent in January, marking the largest monthly increase since May 2024 and offering the clearest sign yet that consumers may be regaining some confidence after a soft end to 2025.

The uplift follows a 0.4 per cent rise in December and a revised 0.4 per cent fall in November, with volumes now 4.5 per cent higher year on year.

Over the three months to January, sales edged up 0.1 per cent, and were 2.6 per cent higher than the same period a year earlier.

January’s growth was driven primarily by non-food stores, where volumes surged 5.3 per cent, alongside a 3.4 per cent rise in ecommerce and a 3.2 per cent uplift in household goods.

Auctions of artwork and antiques helped push volumes higher, while online jewellers and sports supplement retailers reported particularly strong demand. According to the ONS, some jewellers described sales as having reached “unprecedented levels”.

Online sales values rose 1.3 per cent month on month and were up 14.7 per cent year on year, marking the strongest annual growth since April 2021.

Over the three months to January, online spending values increased 10.8 per cent compared with the same period last year.

Wet and cold weather also played its part. With above-average rainfall in January, footfall declined and shoppers increasingly turned to digital channels.

The proportion of sales made online slipped marginally from 28.3 per cent in December to 28.2 per cent in January, reflecting a rise in total spend rather than online weakness.

Sandra Prince, head of consumer at Lloyds, said: “This rise is a positive start to the year. Online sales have been a particular bright spot, likely boosted by the wet weather.

“Retailers are increasingly investing in technology and automation, with many sharpening their focus on social commerce and ensuring products are discoverable through AI searches.

“Many are also strengthening the digital infrastructure of their loyalty programmes to deliver more personalised offers that help retain customers and further boost sales.”

Nicholas Found, head of commercial content at Retail Economics, believes January’s data points to a structural shift rather than a simple post-Christmas bounce.

“January signals a reset in spending, where wellness, jewellery and practical home upgrades outperformed as consumers focus on self-improvement and long-term value,” he said.

“Although overall volume growth still leaves much to be desired, it tells us demand has become more intentional.”

In other words, shoppers are spending, but selectively. Supermarkets and department stores saw declines over the three-month period, offsetting gains in non-food and fuel.

Found argues the broader context remains fragile. “For now, retail remains a market where value wins, but volumes lag. Inflation is easing, yet growth of underlying units remains subdued as households spend carefully rather than freely.

“Growth is being redistributed, setting the tone for another year defined by market-share battles rather than broad-based recovery.”

Discounts, resolutions and digital discovery

Jacqui Baker, head of retail at RSM UK and chair of ICAEW’s Retail Group, attributes part of January’s jump to promotional activity.

“Retail sales jumped in January as consumers took advantage of discounts to beat the January blues,” she said.

“As consumers set their new year’s resolutions for the year ahead, health and beauty came under greater focus, with sports supplements retailers seeing a boost.”

She also highlighted the growing power of digital discovery and social commerce.

“Online sales are being fuelled by the power of social media, not only finding and recommending the right products for the consumer, but making the purchase of these products incredibly easy in the click of a button.”

After what many retailers described as a tough golden quarter, Baker said the January uptick was “exactly what the sector needs,” but warned that maintaining momentum will be the real challenge.

January’s retail performance comes as inflation eased to 3.0 per cent, reviving expectations that the Bank of England could cut interest rates in the spring.

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