Grocery bills in the UK could rise by £275 as inflation reaches its highest level since January, according to new data from Worldpanel by Numerator (formerly Kantar Worldpanel).

Take-home grocery sales grew by 5.4% in the four weeks to 13 July compared with last year, while grocery price inflation accelerated to 5.2% this month.

The average household currently spends £5,283 annually on groceries, meaning inflation could add significantly to shopping bills if habits remain unchanged.

Worldpanel head of retail and consumer insight Fraser McKevitt said: “Just under two thirds of households say they are very concerned about the cost of their grocery shopping, and people are adapting their habits to avoid the full impact of price rises.

“Own-label products continue to outperform brands, growing by 5.6% versus 4.9%. These inflation worries aren’t just changing what we buy, but how we prepare it too — nearly seven in ten dinner plates now have fewer than six components.”

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Innovation remains key for grocers adapting to shifting shopper needs. The drinks aisle is booming, with iced coffee sales up 81% during the summer and kombucha sales more than doubling compared with last year. No and low alcohol drinks are also on the rise, with sales growing 21%.

Seasonal treats saw strong growth too, with ice cream and sorbet sales up 33%, champagne and sparkling wine up 9%, and strawberries and cream benefiting from Wimbledon, with sales rising 28% and 16% respectively.

Among retailers, Lidl reached a record market share of 8.3%, up 0.5 percentage points, attracting more than half a million new customers.

Tesco also grew market share to 28.3%, with sales up 7.1% — its fastest growth since December 2023. Sainsbury’s sales rose 5.3%, lifting its share to 15.1%.

Ocado matched its previous high market share at 2.0%, with sales up 11.7%, outpacing overall online grocery growth of 5.7%. Online accounted for 12% of all grocery sales over the past 12 weeks, with 23% of households shopping virtually at least once.

Other results included M&S, up 6.5%; Morrisons, up 1.0% with an 8.4% share; Aldi, up 6.3% to 10.9%; Asda, down 3.0% with an 11.8% share; Waitrose, up 5.5% with 4.4% market share; Co-op, down 3.7% at 5.2%; and Iceland, up 2.8% with a 2.2% share.

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