Sunday, December 9, 2018

UK GDP growth confirmed at 1%


The UK economy grew by one per cent between July and September, returning to growth following a significant slump, it has been confirmed today.

According to the Office for National Statistics, service and industrial output improved over the quarter while consumer spending saw a boost, though experts have warned that temporary factors affected the figure and state that evidence suggests that the economy has relapsed in recent months.

During the Olympic Games, consumer confidence as well as spend reported growth though Vicky Redwood, Chief UK Economist at Capital Economics, warned that the 1.7 per cent rise in exports over the period was likely the result of increased spend from foreign tourists, as this counts towards the final exports figure.

Redwood explained: “GDP in Q4 will be weighed down by the fading of the Olympics boost.

“The ticket sales accounted for 0.2 percentage points (pp) of Q3‘s GDP growth, and it looks like the boost to output in the hotel, travel and hospitality sectors could have added the same amount again.

“Based on the combination of flat underlying output and a 0.4pp drag from the reversal of the Olympics effect, we expect a 0.4 per cent contraction in GDP in Q4.

“This would only technically qualify as yet another recession if it were followed by a further contraction in Q1. But we doubt that this will stop it being termed a triple dip.”