The bosses of Britain’s biggest retailers are expecting strong Christmas trading, defying analyst predictions of lacklustre spending amid the cost-of-living crisis.
M&S boss Stuart Machin is planning for a “successful and strong Christmas” across clothing, home or food, adding that customers were feeling more confident.
Machin says he is “quietly confident” this year as customers are gearing up for a bigger family celebration this year, while Tesco has bought in more turkeys this Christmas on the back of customers feeling “more optimistic”.
Chief executive Ken Murphy says: “I think people are determined to enjoy Christmas this year. We’re buying up on turkeys because we believe that people will want to celebrate more together and spend more time with friends and family.”
However, George Weston, the chief executive of Primark owner ABF, says shoppers have warned they will cut back on spending.
”We’ve been told by shoppers that they intend to spend a little bit less than a year ago but we think we are going to have a good Christmas and it has already started,” he says.
Shoppers are expected to prioritise spending on food and partywear as they plan big celebrations with family and friends, which will lead some to cut back on gift buying.
Toy retailers, in particular, have sounded a note of caution. The Entertainer founder Gary Grant told The Times last month: “People just haven’t been in Christmas buying mode, plus they’re facing difficult decisions about how they spend their money.”
GlobalData forecasts that sales will edge up 3.4% to £109.7bn this Christmas – behind the 6.2% achieved last year – with all growth coming from price rises.
Globaldata lead retail analyst Nick Gladding says: “Sharply higher prices mean shoppers will spend less in real terms than last year, choosing either to trade down or trim the number of presents they buy.”
Retail Gazette takes a look at how retailers will fare across a host of sectors, from fashion to food and toys to electricals, as the 25 December nears.
Grocery
Food and drink will be the fastest growing sector this Christmas according to GlobalData, which forecasts that sales will be up £2.8bn – or 5.9% – in the golden quarter.
Backing up Tesco’s decision to buy more turkeys, research from the grocer shows that 31% of shoppers want a bigger celebration than in 2022.
Tesco group customer director Emma Botton says: “After an unpredictable summer filled with heatwaves and downpours, it’s no surprise that as a nation we’re looking forward to Christmas more than ever. It’s a time to connect with friends and family and indulge in our favourite foods.”
Sainsbury’s CEO Simon Roberts also expects to deliver “another strong Christmas” while M&S boss Machin is also feeling positive. “I’m quietly confident on Christmas…I think we’re in very good shape,” he says.
“We are definitely seeing good sales performance in our Christmas ranges. In food, people are buying into the ranges and actually eating those ranges now. We’re very encouraged by the numbers in our party food section for example.”
In early November, M&S’s Christmas food-to-order sales were already up 25% on last year.
Christmas starts early for the grocers
M&S is not the only grocer benefiting from an early Christmas surge.
Waitrose says searches on its website have soared in early November, with the “Christmas biscuits,” “Christmas party food” and “Christmas cake” terms rocketing 336%, 239% and 121% compared to last month.
Supermarkets such as Asda and Tesco have launched their Christmas online delivery slots earlier this year, a move that senior vice president of ecommerce Simon Gregg says was designed to help those thinking about spreading the cost of Christmas.
Despite the grocers expecting an early surge, Majestic Wine CEO John Colley expects shoppers to leave it late to pick up their festive tipples.
“Christmas has come later and later for us over the past few years and that’s likely to be the case again. I think we’ll see a good proportion of our customers leaving it fairly late before deciding how much they want to splash out on wine this year,” he says.
A record Christmas for the discounters
Despite the confidence from the traditional supermarkets, Gladding expects a record number of shoppers to turn to the discounters this Christmas as the cost-of-living crisis rages on.
Value will be a key message from the Big 4 to compete.
Roberts says that Sainsbury’s is going into the festive period with the “strongest value position” it has ever had against its competitors, while Gladding expects Tesco to make more extensive use of its Clubcard Prices over Christmas to offer enticing promotions to boost basket sizes.
Fashion
Clothing and footwear is expected to be the fastest growing non-food category, despite tough comparatives last year, according to GlobalData.
There is an eagerness to go out and celebrate this year, which means buying new partywear.
Despite the online retailer’s dampened performance over the past year, chief executive Jose Antonio Ramos Calamonte says in times of crisis consumers tend to concentrate on shopping for occasions, like Black Friday and Christmas, adding that the online giant is eager to “make the most” out of the last few months of the year.
Consumers have started shopping earlier this year, with party season in full swing at M&S by early November, when womenswear sales in the category were up 50% on last year.
GlobalData reports that younger shoppers in particular are keen to “dress up and experiment again,” following social restrictions in recent years amid the pandemic.
M&S is not alone in seeing an early festive fashion surge. Primark said this month that its Christmas sales are up 33% compared to last year, with Christmas jumpers and decorations up 40% and 46% respectively.
Weston says this is down to some shoppers choosing to spread the cost of Christmas over several pay packets rather than just one.
In response to this trend, some retailers opted to launch their Christmas collections earlier this year.
Freemans kicked off its festive activity back on 27 October, its earliest Christmas campaign ever.
Chief customer officer Richard Cristofoli says: “Customers are telling us they are actively looking for Christmas home, party and gift ideas earlier than ever as cost-of-living pressures mean spreading the cost is more important than ever.”
New Look senior head of design Anica Wislawski adds that the retailer has also seen an early surge in Christmas sales but expects “an uptick in sales on Black Friday as shoppers seek out a bargain or two”.
N Brown CEO of retail Sarah Welsh says that customers continue to be “mindful” with their spending and as a result it has focused on creating versatile products that can be used to build several outfits.
GlobalData believes building capsule wardrobes – using small collections of clothes to create multiple outfits – will be a key trend of the season.
Wislawski says its customers are looking for “versatile pieces that they can wear again and again”.
She adds that its partywear range has been designed so that customers can wear pieces in different ways to maximise their value and use throughout the season.
“We see them as a ‘hard-working’ piece of clothing – doubling up as office wear, evening wear or something that can be paired with a winter knit for Christmas Day.”
Department stores
Department stores are anticipating a bumper season.
John Lewis chief executive Nish Kankiwala says: “There is going to be a really good celebration this year. Families are getting together; Christmas is going to be a very good event.”
The retailer has already sold out of some of its in-store Santa experiences, with early release sales up 37% on last year.
The positivity is being felt elsewhere in the sector. Fenwick chief executive John Edgar told Retail Week he has “a good feeling about it” about Christmas, while Liberty CEO Adil Mehboob-Khan is also optimistic.
He says: “There is plenty of energy, you can see it from the mounting traffic in stores and also from the brand initiatives and launches. It’s the first Christmas in a few years where brands have been able to properly plan – and it shows.”
The Liberty boss adds that while he expects the store’s fragrance hall “to be buzzing the most” in the run up to the holiday, “this Christmas will also carry some self-indulgence too with shoppers buying for themselves as well as loved ones”.
However Fortnum & Mason believes sales will be hit by budgets being squeezed.
“The cost-of-living crisis will definitely impact sales this year with people being more selective about what they spend their money on which may impact the more discretionary items,” says the retailer’s director of buying for food, and wines & spirits Liz Morgan.
However, she adds that “customers will still want to have a delicious feast on Christmas Day” with many browsing online before coming into the store to buy.
Homewares
There’s optimism from some homewares retailers with The Range CFO Jamie Messham predicting a strong Christmas.
Much like shoppers have snapped up festive clothes early this year, they have also looked to decorate their homes earlier too.
Selfridges decoration sales surged 50% year on year in October, and John Lewis’ Christmas ranges were also up 10%.
Ebay says that one in a hundred people got their baubles out as early as September this year.
Ebay head of home and garden Rachel Miles says: “After some of the difficulties that this year has brought, the sentiment for many is that Christmas can’t come quickly enough, and people are keen to start feeling the magical festive warmth as early as possible.”
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Toys and gifts
GlobalData’s Gladding expects shoppers to spend less in real terms on gifting than last year and believes trading down or trimming the numbers of presents bought will be prevalent.
Ebay research also found that more than half of UK shoppers are set to purchase fewer presents this year, with quality taking precedence over quantity.
Christmas trading is off to an unusually slow start this year at toys retailer The Entertainer as shoppers remain cautious.
Founder Gary Grant believes that means that Black Friday will be bigger this year.
He told The Times: “Christmas will be later this year and Black Friday will be bigger and busier and probably run for the whole week, all of which adds pressure in terms of logistics and fulfilment.”
The slow start to the season has led to discounting in toys and gifting.
The Works chief executive Gavin Peck says there had been “early discounting across the sector and increased uncertainty as we head into the Christmas period” as it lowered its profit guidance this month.
Peck says The Works responded with more promotional activity, and expects this to continue in the run up to Christmas.
In another sign that the cost-of-living crisis is impacting shoppers, Argos believes budget-friendly toys will be more popular this year.
Director of product, seasonal and kids Nina Findley says: “We know customers are facing increased costs of living and we’ve made sure to include a variety of toys that offer great value whatever your budget, interest or play passion.
“Many of our top toys come in under £30 and we will have promotions running up to Christmas for customers to grab the best deals.”
In terms of trends, Findley notes that this year’s big blockbuster movie releases will play a big part, with Barbie and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles topping most wish lists.
Hamleys is also anticipating a big year for on-screen character toys, with Barbie Pop Reveal dolls and Paw Patrol Movie Skye Deluxe Vehicles expected to fly off the shelves.
Elsewhere in gifting, Gladding expects health and beauty to be a strong performer due to the accessible price points of many products.
Card Factory boss Darcy Willson-Rymer also expects value for money to be a “key driver” this Christmas, with the retailer already upping its value messaging ahead of the holidays.
Willson-Rymer says its pet greeting cards, which have been some of its fastest-growing lines this year, will be a big seller this Christmas. The retailer has also launched a pet gifting range across 300 of its stores.
Electricals
Currys expects to see a large chunk of its golden quarter sales take place this Black Friday weekend as shoppers seek savings on big-ticket items.
“There is a cautious attitude to consumer behaviour this season,” a Currys spokesperson warns.
“Black Friday has long been a highly anticipated event in the festive shopping season, and we expect this year will be no different.”
However, Ao.com boss John Roberts told analysts this week that Black Friday does not achieve “the stratospheric growth” it did when it first burst onto the scene 10 years ago.
He said the concept that Black Friday sales get bigger and bigger every year does not ring true in electricals where people tend to buy products when something breaks.
“Things don’t conveniently break at Black Friday,” he says.
However, N Brown CEO of retail Sarah Welsh believes Black Friday will be an important sales driver in electricals.
She says customers are “spending cautiously so looking for great deals to give them certainty on value and helpful ways to help spread the cost”.
According to Currys, energy-saving products will be a big hit this year as shoppers look to lower their bills during the winter months.
The retailer says that air fryer fever will “continue to prosper” through a mix of newcomers to the category and people looking to upgrade their current models.
Refurbished tech will also have its moment this Christmas, with a recent Currys survey revealing that 36% of British consumers are likely to buy refurbished tech in the winter sales.
The business is also seeing a steady demand for its pink electricals and accessories as Barbie fever continues.
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