UK goods exports rose sharply at the start of 2026, but fresh risks from global trade tensions and geopolitical instability could quickly derail momentum, warned Parcelhero.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics show exports increased by £2bn in January, a 6.7% rise month-on-month, with growth across both EU and non-EU markets.
However, delivery specialist Parcelhero warned the strong performance may prove short-lived as headwinds build in key markets, particularly the US.
Parcelhero head of consumer research David Jinks said the year had begun strongly, with gains driven by increased exports of machinery, fuels and chemicals
“2026 got off to a flying start with a £2bn month-on-month increase in goods exports over December 2025,” he said.
The data showed exports to non-EU countries rose by £1.1bn, while EU exports increased by £0.9bn. In contrast, exports to the US fell by £0.5bn, with declines led by reduced car sales.
Jinks said this weakness could deepen following new US tariff measures introduced earlier this year.
“The value of goods exports to the United States have remained relatively low since the introduction of trade tariffs in April 2025 and British-manufactured cars have been particularly hard-hit.” He added that the introduction of a global 10% tariff on goods entering the US could further erode the competitiveness of UK exports.
Alongside export gains, the figures showed a decline in imports, which fell by £0.3bn in January and by £1.3bn over the three months to January. This contributed to a narrowing of the UK’s trade deficit.
Despite this, Parcelhero said the broader outlook remains uncertain, with geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing Middle East conflict, and shifting trade policies likely to drive continued volatility for exporters.
“UK exporters are looking at another period of continuing volatility,” Jinks added.
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