Retail supply chains could take up to five months to recover from disruption caused by the Iran war, raising the risk of higher prices for shoppers this Christmas, according to logistics specialist Advanced Supply Chain (ASC).

The business said transport costs may not begin returning towards pre-conflict levels until at least mid-July, even if peace talks reopen safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz this month.

That timing could prove critical for retailers, as many will already be placing Christmas orders and absorbing elevated freight and supply chain costs.

ASC UK and European sales director Stuart Greenfield said: “Recent disruptions show that supply chains usually undergo a two-phase adjustment. They initially stabilise to absorb the immediate shock of an event such as a war, before entering a longer period of rebalancing and some form of normalisation.”

He added: “The invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea in 2023 indicate that it takes around 3-5 months for this first phase.”

ASC said reopening the Strait of Hormuz would not bring an instant reset, with delayed vessels, stranded tankers and disrupted schedules still needing to be cleared.

Greenfield said: “Reopening the Strait of Hormuz will create a trickle-down effect, which starts with clearing oil tankers and vessels stranded in the Strait, and then dealing with the backlog of other delayed and suspended shipping schedules.”

The warning comes as oil prices have topped $100 a barrel during the conflict, while Asia-Europe freight rates have also risen sharply.

Greenfield said retailers were working hard to protect consumers from further price rises.

He added: “It’s clear there are wide-ranging efforts to avoid the impacts of the Iran war pushing up retail selling prices for shoppers this Christmas.”

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