This week, potential talks of reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has eased immediate fears of a prolonged supply shock, but retailers should not expect a swift return to normal, according to Blue Yonder’s Wayne Snyder.
Yesterday’s (8 April) announcement of a temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran has calmed energy markets and offered some short-term reassurance to businesses worried about rising freight costs, delayed deliveries and renewed inflationary pressure.
For example, brent crude has already fallen back below $100 a barrel after surging during the conflict.
But, Synder says, the Strait of Hormuz remains a fragile route. Around a fifth of global oil volumes pass through the waterway, making it one of the most important arteries for global trade.
For UK retailers already grappling with weak consumer confidence, rising wage bills and supply chain pressures, the disruption has been another reminder of how exposed the sector remains to geopolitical shocks.
That concern has been felt on the ground. UK supermarket Iceland recently warned that further cost inflation linked to global instability could feed through into pricing, while businesses across grocery and general merchandise have become increasingly alert to the risks posed by energy and freight volatility. Against that backdrop, Snyder says the ceasefire should be treated as a first step rather than a full resolution.
A cautious return, not a quick fix
“Supply chains are unlikely to return to normal immediately, even with the Strait reopening,” Snyder said.
“If the ceasefire holds and transit resumes fully, activity could approach near-normal levels within one to two months. However, this will depend on how efficiently backlogs are cleared, as well as how shipping lines and insurers respond to the evolving risk environment.”
That means retailers should not expect an instant release of pent-up cargo. Instead, Snyder said, the recovery is likely to be gradual.
“In the short term, we are more likely to see a gradual increase in vessel traffic rather than a sudden surge. Priority will be given to oil tankers and other high-priority shipments that have been delayed. Much will also depend on security assurances and ongoing risk assessments. Insurance remains uncertain, and security risks, such as unexploded mines, persist even if the ceasefire holds.”
For supply chain teams, that uncertainty matters as much as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz itself. Even if vessels start moving more freely, congestion, insurance delays and operational caution could all slow the pace of recovery.
Energy and fertiliser risks still hang over retail
The war has seen disruptions to the global supply chain, with the biggest immediate impact has been in energy, but Snyder said the knock-on effects stretch far wider.
“The biggest impact has been in the oil and gas sector, where around 20% of global volumes run through the Strait. Freight costs and oil prices have surged, feeding into all sectors, including UK retail.”
“With the potential of rising energy costs combined with the broader economic impact on consumer confidence, that retailers have warned of potential price increases. This disruption also affects fertilisers, which has a knock-on impact on global food prices and crop production.”
That matters particularly for grocers, who remain highly sensitive to shifts in agricultural input costs. Fertiliser disruption can take months to work its way through planting cycles, crop yields and wholesale pricing.
Snyder said it was too early to put a firm date on when supply chains for key goods would fully recover.
“It’s difficult to put a precise timeline on when key goods such as fuel, fertiliser and food inputs will return to pre-crisis availability. This will likely play out over the coming quarters.”
“That said, supply chains do tend to rebound relatively quickly once disruption eases. We’re already seeing some early signs of stabilisation, with oil prices falling back below $100. There is cautious optimism that this trajectory will continue.”
However, he warned that confidence remains fragile.
“Some shipping companies still have concerns around crew safety, which could slow the pace of recovery. At the same time, the disruption is prompting countries to reassess their energy security strategies, with different approaches emerging. For example, the UK has placed renewed focus on production in the North Sea.”
Retailers need visibility and flexibility
For now, Snyder believes the biggest risk for retailers is assuming the worst is over too soon.
“Recovery remains fragile and it is still early days. The ceasefire is temporary, and much will depend on how the situation evolves over the coming weeks.”
He said the most immediate market response had been in oil and gas, while luxury stocks had also shown early signs of optimism.
“The most immediate reaction has been in oil and gas, where prices have adjusted quickly to the prospect of resumed flows. We are also seeing signs of movement in luxury markets, with some stocks rising between 5-7%. The sector is reliant on demand from the Gulf states and China, where energy dynamics play a significant role, so any recovery in confidence will be important.”
For retailers and suppliers, the lesson is clear: use this period to strengthen resilience rather than relax.
“The priority for retailers and suppliers should be responsiveness and visibility,” Snyder said.
“Businesses need a real-time understanding of where disruption is occurring across their networks, which requires closer coordination between shippers, aviation, suppliers, retailers and transport providers.”
He added that technology would play a bigger role in helping businesses navigate future shocks.
“Leveraging advanced forecasting and AI-driven tools can help retailers better predict shifts in both supply and demand, run scenario planning, and identify optimal responses more quickly.
“This helps retailers be more agile. For those using the Gulf as a distribution hub, the ability to model alternative routes and pivot quickly will be key to maintaining continuity. Ultimately, while disruption is difficult to predict, retailers that invest in visibility, agility and smarter planning will be far better positioned to manage ongoing uncertainty.”
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