US retailers are reportedly pulling forward orders from China by up to six weeks to secure stock for Black Friday and Christmas before expected tariff hikes later this year.
Shipping executives said that retailers had brought forward orders by four to six weeks, with May and June volumes higher than expected as businesses sought to protect holiday inventories.
The early rush has helped push up container rates and tighten shipping capacity on China-US routes, adding fresh cost pressure to retailers already facing a volatile trading backdrop.
Retailers would usually ramp up holiday imports between July and September, but shipping firms said the peak had arrived earlier this year as businesses moved to get ahead of potential tariff changes.
US President Donald Trump’s visit to China last month helped preserve the current detente between the two countries, but retailers remain concerned that tariffs could rise again in the coming months.
A universal 10 per cent US tariff imposed in February is due to expire on 24 July, while the US Trade Representative has proposed a 12.5 per cent tariff on imports from China and other countries following an investigation into forced labour.
Maersk told Reuters that container space had tightened on the China-US route since mid-May due to stronger customer demand and earlier seasonal bookings.
Back-to-school items including stationery and apparel were among the goods brought forward, while Christmas stockpiling has also played a role. World Cup-related orders, including jerseys, flags, souvenirs and large-screen TVs, have added to demand, with the US co-hosting the tournament with Canada and Mexico.
Drewry’s World Container Index showed spot rates from Shanghai to New York hit $7,149 (£5,390) per 40-foot container on 25 June, up six per cent on the previous week and 25 per cent year on year.
Rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles reached $5,750 (£4,340), up 12 per cent on the week and 54 per cent higher than a year earlier.
The frontloading could sustain the recent surge in US imports from China into June, after shipments rose 35 per cent in May. That compared with 11 per cent growth in April and a contraction in March.
However, industry executives warned the uplift may fade later in the summer once goods have already landed and higher tariffs begin to weigh on demand.
Vizion chief executive Kyle Henderson said that US demand remained below its three-year average and should be described as “normal-to-soft”, with higher freight costs also reflecting capacity management by shipping firms rather than a broad consumer boom.
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