Maersk lifts outlook as demand and freight rates climb

Supply Chain

The Danish shipping giant now expects underlying EBITDA of between $8bn and $10bn for 2026, up from its previous forecast of $4.5bn to $7bn.

It also lifted its underlying EBIT guidance to between $2bn and $4bn, compared with its earlier range of a $1.5bn loss to a $1bn profit.

Free cash flow is now expected to be at least negative $1.5bn, an improvement on its previous forecast of at least negative $3bn.

Maersk said the upgrade was based on continued strength in container demand and a sustained rise in spot freight rates.

The group now expects global container market volumes to grow by around 4 per cent this year, at the top end of its previous guidance range of two per cent to four per cent.

The update will be closely watched by retailers, as higher freight rates add further pressure to supply chains at a time when businesses are already managing geopolitical risk, cost inflation and shifting trade patterns.

According to Reuters, Maersk pointed to particularly strong demand in Asia, while analysts have suggested some of the uplift may reflect businesses bringing forward shipments ahead of potential tariff changes.

The rise in freight rates also comes against a volatile backdrop for global trade, with disruption around the Red Sea and wider Middle East tensions continuing to affect shipping routes and costs.

While resilient demand is positive for global trade volumes, it also risks adding cost pressure for businesses importing goods from Asia into Europe and the US.

Maersk is due to publish its full second-quarter results on 13 August.

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Maersk lifts outlook as demand and freight rates climb

The Danish shipping giant now expects underlying EBITDA of between $8bn and $10bn for 2026, up from its previous forecast of $4.5bn to $7bn.

It also lifted its underlying EBIT guidance to between $2bn and $4bn, compared with its earlier range of a $1.5bn loss to a $1bn profit.

Free cash flow is now expected to be at least negative $1.5bn, an improvement on its previous forecast of at least negative $3bn.

Maersk said the upgrade was based on continued strength in container demand and a sustained rise in spot freight rates.

The group now expects global container market volumes to grow by around 4 per cent this year, at the top end of its previous guidance range of two per cent to four per cent.

The update will be closely watched by retailers, as higher freight rates add further pressure to supply chains at a time when businesses are already managing geopolitical risk, cost inflation and shifting trade patterns.

According to Reuters, Maersk pointed to particularly strong demand in Asia, while analysts have suggested some of the uplift may reflect businesses bringing forward shipments ahead of potential tariff changes.

The rise in freight rates also comes against a volatile backdrop for global trade, with disruption around the Red Sea and wider Middle East tensions continuing to affect shipping routes and costs.

While resilient demand is positive for global trade volumes, it also risks adding cost pressure for businesses importing goods from Asia into Europe and the US.

Maersk is due to publish its full second-quarter results on 13 August.

Click here to sign up to Retail Gazette‘s free daily email newsletter

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